Here are the November market stats for Boise, Meridian, and Eagle, Idaho.
(You might want to take a deep breath and sit down before reading this)
Listing Inventory = 4,246 homes @ $299,900 median price
November 2005 closed = 1,184 homes @ $208,000 median price
November 2006 closed = 619 homes @ $231,000 median price
6.9 months’ supply (if no new listings)
-47% closed units (homes)
+11% median price
Listing Inventory – 1,295 homes @ $299,900 median price
November 2005 closed = 379 homes @ $282,500 median price
November 2006 closed = 166 homes @ $234,900 median price
7.8 months’ supply (if no new listings)
-56% closed units (homes)
+20% median price
Listing Inventory = 438 homes @ $574,000 median price
November 2005 closed = 69 homes @ $348,000 median price
November 2006 closed = 36 homes @ $350,000 median price
12.2 months’ supply (if no new listings)
-48% closed units (homes)
+.6% median price
I am very suspicious of the accuracy and relevance of the above statistics; specifically rising prices combined with declining closed units.
The law of supply and demand pretty much dictates that this cannot be true, or at least, cannot continue.
I think it is more likely that the stronger market of a year ago overpowered the current weaker numbers and that I would get entirely different results if I ran numbers for a shorter time period. In other words, our market was much stronger a year ago than it is now.
Then, there’s the fact that the numbers are NOT the numbers ~ those are sales prices that do not reflect seller-paid closing costs, bonus commissions to selling agents, etc. Very few transactions are closing these days without some seller concessions, and those concessions do not show up in the median price numbers.
For example, I received my “Christmas Present” from Corey Barton Homes today ~ a slick little brochure offering me $2,500 bonus commission to sell one of their homes, and another $2,500 for my buyers to use as they please. I wonder if this is on top of their previous offer to make the first six months of mortgage payments for buyers of their homes?
Our market statistics are continuing to deteriorate month-over-month. I want to attribute that to seasonality, but that doesn’t work because I am comparing to the same time period a year ago.
While I am not in the doom and gloom camp, this sure doesn’t match up to the “soft landing” so often predicted by our vaunted National Association of Realtors® cheerleaders.
The Boise area is a great place to live, we were just named the “most secure place to live” at www.bestplaces.net, we have almost no crime, great weather, 3.2% unemployment rate, and relatively affordable housing.
Why are we getting hit harder than some of the so-called “bubble markets”?
Can anyone help me out here?
Note: Statistics derived from Intermountain MLS data and pertain to single-family homes on lots or acreage.