Why Boise Homes Are Taking Longer To Sell

More than a few Boise home sellers are wondering why their homes aren’t selling.

The simple truth is that our market has changed ~ dramatically.

We had a big party in 2013 with low listing inventory, eager buyers, and multiple offers.

At the end of May 2013, we had 1,802 homes for sale in MLS.

As of this morning, we have 2,985 homes for sale in MLS.

That’s a stunning 65.7% increase in available listings.

At the end of May 2013, we had 1,434 pending sales (sales in escrow; awaiting closing).

As of this morning, we have 917 pending sales.

That’s a 36.1% decline in pending sales.

Further, our pending sales have declined over each of the past four months ~ during our busy summer selling season.

Our pending sales, at the end of August, were equal to those of last February.

Is this the end of the world?

Is the Boise real estate market crashing?

Absolutely not!

Our market is simply leveling off after going on a tear since bottoming out in the Spring of 2011.

Our overall market has about four months’ supply of listing inventory, which is a healthy market.

Our distress sales are mostly behind us and homes are still selling; albeit at a more moderate and rational pace.

Most areas of the country would love to have a market like ours with four months’ supply of listings and 917 pending sales.

Our market isn’t “bad”; it’s simply returning to normal.

You can’t continue to have 16% annual price appreciation without pricing everyone out of the market.

If you’re a seller, the reality is that this isn’t 2013 anymore.

It’s 2014 and you have competition ~ lots of competition.

That competition means buyers have choices ~ lots of choices.

It’s not reasonable to expect your home to have 10 showings a week and sell in 30 days.

Selling a home in the Boise real estate market requires putting your home in top condition, pricing it realistically, and allowing adequate time for the right buyer to come along.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage.  Data does not include condo or townhome properties.

 

Boise Homes For Sale: Listing Inventory By Age

Here’s a breakdown of the 2,982 Boise homes for sale currently offered in our MLS, broken out by age.

  • To Be Built: 432
  • Under Construction: 151
  • New-Never Occupied: 254
  • Less Than 1 Year Old: 21
  • 1-5 Years Old: 133
  • 6-10 Years Old: 570
  • 11-20 Years Old: 546
  • 21-30 Years Old: 260
  • 31-50 Years Old: 319
  • 50+ Years Old: 296

Takeaways

  • The 432 To Be Built homes (14.5% of all available homes) are phantom listing inventory offered by builders hoping to sell them before starting construction.
  • Most of the New-Never Occupied homes are spec homes built by Corey Barton, Hubble Homes, and a few other spec builders.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage. Data does not include condo or townhome properties.

 

Boise Home Sales: 2014 Pending Sales Trends

Pending sales of Boise homes are an indicator of future closed sales.

Here’s a breakdown of 2014 year-to-date pending sales.

  • January: 813
    % Change: (baseline number)
  • February: 897
    % Change: +10.3%
  • March: 993
    % Change: +10.7%
  • April: 1,177
    % Change: +18.5%
  • May: 1,143
    % Change: -2.9%
  • June: 1,114
    % Change: -2.5%
  • July: 971
    % Change:  -12.8%
  • August: 898
    % Change:  -7.5%

Takeaways

  • Declining pending sales for the past four months are not a positive indicator for future closed sales.
  • Our August pending sales are equal to our February pending sales.
  • Pending sales  typically rise during our Spring market and continue to be relatively strong throughout our Summer market, but that hasn’t happened this year.
  • Our downtrending pending sales will result in lower closed sales in the coming months.
  • Our Fall market is often stronger than our Summer market, so perhaps we will see an uptick in  pending sales during September and October.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage.  Data does not include condo or townhome properties.

 

Boise Idaho Real Estate Stats – August 2014

Here’s a snapshot of August’s activity for Boise, Idaho real estate (Ada County):

Boise Idaho Available Homes

  • # Available: 2,950
  • Average Asking Price: $314,398
  • Median Asking Price: $245,876
  • Months’ Supply: 3.9

Boise Idaho Pending Sales

  • # Pending: 898
  • Average Asking Price: $271,203
  • Median Asking Price: $232,250

Boise Idaho Closed Sales –August 2013

  • # Closed: 853
  • Average Sales Price: $236,472
  • Median Sales Price: $201,750

Boise Idaho Closed Sales – August 2014

  • # Closed: 752
    % Change: -11.8%
  • Average Sales Price: $254,053
    % Change: +7.4%
  • Median Sales Price: $218,745
    % Change: +8.4%

Data taken from Intermountain MLS on 9/5/14 and pertains to Ada County, Idaho single-family residences on lot or acreage.

Data does not include condominiums or townhomes.

Months’ Supply = available listings divided by average monthly closed sales for the past six months.

 

Boise Homes: Pending Sales Trends

Pending sales of Boise homes are an indicator of future closed sales.

Here’s a breakdown of 2014 year-to-date pending sales.

  • January: 813
    % Change: (baseline number)
  • February: 897
    % Change: +10.3%
  • March: 993
    % Change: +10.7%
  • April: 1,177
    % Change: +18.5%
  • May: 1,143
    % Change: -2.9%
  • June: 1,114
    % Change: -2.5%
  • July: 971
    % Change:  -12.8%

Takeaways

The lower numbers of May, June, and July pending sales confirm a lapse in our late Spring and early Summer sales activity.

The Boise real estate market is often slower in Summer, then strengthens as we enter our Fall season.

Activity has increased recently, which is confirmed by our August month-to-date 1,005 pending sales with a few more days until the end of the month.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage.  Data does not include condo or townhome properties.